Nkyerɛkyerɛmu: D’Alembert awiabere
Kyɛfa baako kɔ soro wɔ ahwereɛ akyi, kyɛfa baako kɔ fam wɔ nkonim akyi, kɔkɔɔ kyinhyia biara, kyinhyia ɔha. Nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ bɛtɛɛ sen biara, ne deɛ bɛtɛɛ no gye.
D’Alembert agorɔ bere a ɛyɛ sɔhwɛ, kyinhyia 100, $5 kyɛfa biara so. Bɛt sika no san baa $5 so mprɛ enum, kɔɔ soro brɛoo kɔsii $80 wɔ bere bɔne bi mu, na ɛwiee wɔ $55 so a agorɔ bere no kɔ fam $40. Nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ sɛ ɛkari pɛ, nanso ɛnyɛ saa.
Nantew nhyehyɛe no mu
Ahwereɛ de wo foro anammɔn baako. Nkonim san wo akyi anammɔn baako.
Bɛt sika ne deɛ ɛfiri mu ba no wɔ bɛt a wofi ase no kyɛfa mu.
Nhyehyɛe no
Fi aseɛ wɔ kyɛfasikaKyɛfaBɛt sika a ɛwɔ ase a nhyehyɛe anaa agorɔfoɔ de yɛ adwuma. Wɔka bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ ho asɛm wɔ kyɛfa mu sɛdeɛ ɛbɛyɛ a ɛbɛfata ɛpono biara.Kenkan ne nyinaa → baako, $5, so wɔ kɔkɔɔbɛtKɔkɔɔSika pɛ bɛt wɔ nɔma kɔkɔɔ 18 no so. Franse kasa mu: rouge.Kenkan ne nyinaa → so. Sɛ wohwere a, fa kyɛfa baako ka ho; sɛ wodi nkonim a, yi baako fi so, nanso ɛnkɔ baako ase da. Adwene no, a d’Alembert ankyerɛ nanso wɔde sobo no, ne sɛ nkonim ne ahwereɛ bɛkari pɛ, enti ahwereɛ baako ne nkonim baako biara bɛma yɛn kyɛfa baako mfasoɔ. Akontaabu ka sɛ kɔkɔɔ di nkonim wɔ kyinhyia 48.65% mu, enti ahwereɛ dɔɔso sen nkonim bɛyɛ baako wɔ aduanan mu, na bɛt sika no kɔ soro brɛoo bere kɔ so.
Kyinhyia 1–30
Kɔkɔɔ dunan, tuntumbɛtTuntumSika pɛ bɛt wɔ nɔma tuntum 18 no so. Franse kasa mu: noir.Kenkan ne nyinaa → dunum, hweentwahonanHweeTokuru ahabammono baako a sika pɛ bɛt, dumienu kuo bɛt anaa santen tee bɛt biara nkata so; kasino mfasoɔ fibea. Wɔfrɛ no nso hwee baako, 0.Kenkan ne nyinaa → baako. Bɛt sika no kɔɔ soro kɔɔ $20 wɔ ahwereɛ mmiɛnsa ntoatoasoɔ bi mu, san baa $5 so ansa na kyinhyia 18 reduru, na ɛkɔɔ soro $25 wɔ saa bere no awieeɛ. Mfasoɔ ankasa +$20. Ahwereɛ ne nkonim abien biara de kyɛfa baako baeɛ sɛdeɛ wɔka no; ahwereɛ a ɛkaa ho no weree no. Ɛyɛ sɛ pɔmpɔ a ɛyɛ brɛoo a ɛtaa yɛ adwuma.
Kyinhyia 31–65
Bere bɔne no. Kɔkɔɔ dumiɛnsa ne deɛ ɛnyɛ kɔkɔɔ aduonu mmienu, a ahwereɛ nson ntoatoasoɔ ka ho. Firi $5 wɔ kyinhyia 41 so no, bɛt sika no forooɛ kyɛfa baako baako kɔsii $80, na $75 ahwereɛ biara sɛee $5 nkonim a ɛdii kan no mu dunum. Saa kyinhyia yi mu mfasoɔ ankasa −$485; nkontaa a ɛkɔ so −$465. Biribiara a ɛyɛ hu ansi wɔ kyinhyia baako biara so; brɛoo a ɛkɔɔ soro no na ɛyɛeɛ.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- mfinimfini nɔma −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$885
Kyinhyia 66–100
Kɔkɔɔ aduonu ne deɛ ɛnyɛ kɔkɔɔ dunum, na bɛt sika no san firi $80 rekɔ $55 so wɔ $5 anammɔn mu. Nkonim biara wɔ bɛt sika kɛseɛ so san gyee sika ankasa: $75 nkonim wɔ $70 ahwereɛ akyi yɛ abien no a ɛde +$5 ba, nanso abien no yɛ kɛseɛ. Saa kyinhyia yi mu mfasoɔ ankasa +$425; awieeɛ no −$40.
Akontaa no
Bɛt sika wɔ mfinimfini mu bɛyɛ $37, enti bɛt sika nyinaa bɛyɛ $3,670, na agorɔfoɔ a ɔto $5 pɛ daa deɛ yɛ $500. Ahwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanakontaabuAhwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanBoɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan bɔ bɛt sika nyinaa ho; ahwereɛ mfinimfini boɔ wɔ agorɔ bere anaa bere bi mu.Kenkan ne nyinaa → wɔ $3,670 so yɛ $99; deɛ ɛbaa ankasa −$40, ɛnnuru gyinapɛn nsakraeɛakontaabuGyinapɛn nsakraeɛNsakraeɛ ntini; ntam kwan a ɛtaa da deɛ ɛfiri mu ba ne boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan ntam.Kenkan ne nyinaa → baako. Bɛt sika kɛseɛ a ɛkɔ soro brɛoo no ne nhyehyɛe no nnwuma nyinaa: sika pii da ɛpono no so, 2.70% koro no ara fi dɔla biara so, na deɛ ɛbɛtumi aba no trɛw.
Deɛ agorɔ bere no kyerɛ
D’Alembert yɛ sika agorɔfoɔ adwene mfomsoɔ a wɔakyerɛw no sɛ bɛt mmara: ɛsusu sɛ nkonim ne ahwereɛ bɛkari pɛ ntɛm ama bɛt sika no asan aba fam. Wɔkari pɛ bere tenten mu ɛfiri sɛ ɛfra pii mu, ɛnyɛ sɛ ɛsiesie ne ho, na biribiara mma bɛt sika no nsan mma kyɛfa baako so. Ɛyɛ nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ brɛoo a ɔbota biara nni mu, na ne brɛoo no nti na agorɔfoɔ gye no di.
Nsɛmmisa
Ɛnntaa nsi. Bɛt sika no kɔ soro kyɛfa baako ahwereɛ biara so, ɛmmɔ ho mmienu, enti ɛhia ahwereɛ ntoatoasoɔ tenten koraa ansa na ɛaduru ahyeɛ no.
Aane, na ɛno dane no sika pɛ a wɔto daaɔkwanSika pɛ a wɔto daaSika dodoɔ koro no ara a wode to bɛt kyinhyia biara. Ɛno ne gyinapɛn a wɔde bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ biara toto ho.Kenkan ne nyinaa → wɔ ahyeɛ no so wɔ ahwereɛ ntoatoasoɔ bɔne akyi. Ahyeɛ biara ye; biara nsesa kasino mfasoɔ.
Ɔkaa wɔ 1754 mu sɛ sɛ ti ba mprɛ pii a ɛtoatoa so a, akyi bɛtaa aba. Sika agorɔfoɔ a wɔpenee so no de ne din too nhyehyɛe no so. Anka n’ani bɛwu.
Serew kakra
Nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ bɛtɛɛ sen biara. Ɛkɔ soro brɛoo mmom sen sɛ ɛbɛhwe ɔbota so.
Nsɛm fibea
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.