Roulette akontaabu · Adwene titire · simma 8

Nsakraeɛ

Deɛ enti a nɔma baako bɛt ne kɔkɔɔ bɛt a wɔn ahwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanakontaabuAhwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanBoɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan bɔ bɛt sika nyinaa ho; ahwereɛ mfinimfini boɔ wɔ agorɔ bere anaa bere bi mu.Kenkan ne nyinaa → yɛ pɛ no te sɛ agorɔ ahodoɔ mmienu.

Mmuaeɛ tiawa

Nsakraeɛ (variance) susu sɛdeɛ nsunsuansoɔ trɛ kɔ akyirikyiri fi boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan no ho. Kyɛfa biara a wode to so, ɛyɛ bɛyɛ 34 ma nɔma baako bɛt na ɛyɛ bɛyɛ 1 ma kɔkɔɔ.

nɔma baako bɛt
σ² ≈ 34.1
kɔkɔɔ
σ² ≈ 1.00
nsonsonoeɛ dodoɔ
34×
sɛdeɛ ɛkɔ soro ne N
tee

Bɛt baako akontaabu kwan

Bɛt a ɛtua W tia 1 a ne hokwanakontaabuHokwanHokwan a biribi bɛba, firi 0 kɔsi 1 anaa 0% kɔsi 100%. Nɔma baako: 1/37 = 2.70%.Kenkan ne nyinaa → yɛ p no, ne nsunsuansoɔ wɔ kyɛfasikaKyɛfaBɛt sika a ɛwɔ ase a nhyehyɛe anaa agorɔfoɔ de yɛ adwuma. Wɔka bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ ho asɛm wɔ kyɛfa mu sɛdeɛ ɛbɛyɛ a ɛbɛfata ɛpono biara.Kenkan ne nyinaa → biara so yɛ +W wɔ hokwan p mu na ɛyɛ −1 wɔ hokwan 1 − p mu. Boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwanakontaabuBoɔ a wɔhwɛ kwanNsunsuansoɔ mfinimfini boɔ wɔ bɛt biara so wɔ bere tenten mu. Bɛt sika no −1/37 wɔ Yuropu bɛt biara a ɛyɛ daa deɛ so.Kenkan ne nyinaa → no yɛ pW − (1 − p) = −1/37. NsakraeɛakontaabuNsakraeɛNsusuiɛ a ɛkyerɛ sɛdeɛ nsɛm a ɛfiri mu ba no trɛ wɔ boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan ho. Ɛso ma nɔma baako bɛt, ɛsua ma sika pɛ bɛt.Kenkan ne nyinaa → no yɛ E[X²] − EV² = pW² + (1 − p) − (1/37)². Nɔma baako bɛtbɛtNɔma baako bɛtNɔma baako pɛ, ɛtua 35:1.Kenkan ne nyinaa → mu: (1/37)(1225) + 36/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 34.08. KɔkɔɔbɛtKɔkɔɔSika pɛ bɛt wɔ nɔma kɔkɔɔ 18 no so. Franse kasa mu: rouge.Kenkan ne nyinaa → mu: 18/37 + 19/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 0.999.

bɛtpWnsakraeɛ wɔ $1 biara soσ wɔ $1 biara so
Nɔma baako bɛt1/373534.085.84
Nɔma mmienu bɛt2/371716.704.09
Nɔma mmiɛnsa bɛt3/371110.753.28
Nɔma ɛnan bɛt4/3788.052.84
Nɔma nsia bɛt6/3754.972.23
Dumienu kuo12/3721.941.39
Sika pɛ18/3710.9991.00
EV yɛ pɛ wɔ santen biara so. Nsakraeɛ no so tew bere a nɔma a ɛkata so dɔɔso no.

Deɛ ɛkyerɛ ma agorɔ bere

Nsakraeɛ ka bom wɔ kyinhyia a ɛmfa hoakontaabuKyinhyia a ɛmfa hoKyinhyia biara hokwan yɛ pɛ sɛdeɛ deɛ atwam teɛ biara. Ɛno ne akontaabu biara a ɛwɔ wɛbsaet yi so nnyinasoɔ.Kenkan ne nyinaa → mu, enti kyinhyia N mu wɔ bɛt sika a ɛnsesa so no, nyinaa nsakraeɛ yɛ N × bɛt sika² × σ², na gyinapɛn nsakraeɛakontaabuGyinapɛn nsakraeɛNsakraeɛ ntini; ntam kwan a ɛtaa da deɛ ɛfiri mu ba ne boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan ntam.Kenkan ne nyinaa → no yɛ σ × bɛt sika × √N. Kyinhyia 100 wɔ $10 so: gyinapɛn nsakraeɛ no yɛ bɛyɛ $584 ma nɔma baako bɛt na $100 ma kɔkɔɔ, a ɛkyinkyini −$27 korɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan no ho. Agorɔfoɔ baako hunu nsunsuansoɔ a ɛsesa ɔhaha; ɔfoforɔ no hunu nsakraeɛ a ɛyɛ brɛoo. Wɔn mmienu nyinaa retua boɔ korɔ.

Gyinapɛn nsakraeɛ wɔ agorɔ bere a ɛyɛ kyinhyia 100, $10 mu$
Nɔma baako bɛt
$584
Nɔma mmienu bɛt
$409
Nɔma ɛnan bɛt
$284
Nɔma nsia bɛt
$223
Dumienu kuo
$139
Sika pɛ
$100
$
0292$584
Nsunsuansoɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan wɔ baabiara: −$27.

Roulette kyinhyia a ɛmfa ho

Nsakraeɛ ne nhyehyɛe ahodoɔ

Bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔɔkwanBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔMmara biara a ɛsesa bɛt sika no gyina deɛ atwam so. Ntoatoasoɔ a ɛkɔ soro ahwereɛ akyi ma no kɔ soro ahwereɛ akyi, na deɛ ɛkɔ soro nkonim akyi ma no kɔ soro nkonim akyi.Kenkan ne nyinaa → nsesa EV wɔ kyɛfa biara a wode to so, nanso ɛsesa sika dodoɔ a wode to bɛt so ne sɛdeɛ nsunsuansoɔ no trɛ te. MartingaleɔkwanMartingaleBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ a ɛbɔ bɛt no mmɔho mmienu ahwereɛ biara akyi. Hwɛ Akwan ɔfa no na hunu deɛ ɛyɛ ne deɛ ɛnyɛ.Kenkan ne nyinaa → ma agorɔ bere pii nsakraeɛ so tew (nkonim nketewa pii) na ɛde dua kɛseɛ bi ka ho (ahwereɛ kɛseɛ a ɛmma mpɛn pii); ɛnam saa dua no nti, agorɔ bere nyinaa nsakraeɛ boro sika pɛ a wɔto daaɔkwanSika pɛ a wɔto daaSika dodoɔ koro no ara a wode to bɛt kyinhyia biara. Ɛno ne gyinapɛn a wɔde bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ biara toto ho.Kenkan ne nyinaa → deɛ no so. ParoliɔkwanParoliBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ a ɛkɔ soro nkonim akyi: bɔ no mmɔho mmienu nkonim akyi, san fi ase ahwereɛ akyi anaa nkonim mmiɛnsa a ɛtoa so akyi. Wɔfrɛ no nso Martingale a ɛdane.Kenkan ne nyinaa → yɛ ne nea ɛne no bɔ abira. Nhyehyɛe a wobɛpaw yɛ nsakraeɛ tebea a wobɛpaw; mfinimfini boɔ no nni nneɛma a wobɛtumi apaw no mu.

Nɔma baako bɛt agorɔ bere du, $10 daa: nsakraeɛ a ɛda adideɛ ɛfiri mu ba ne mfitiaseɛ
+$3,360$0−$500+$1,4400125250375500kyinhyiadeɛ ɛfiri mu ba
agorɔ bere 1,000 × kyinhyia 500 · afasebiri p10/p25/p75/p90, bruu a ɛnyɛ den mfinimfini nɔma, nhwɛsoɔ 83 a ɛnyɛ den · fa mouse fa mfonini no so na hunu nkyɛmu wɔ kyinhyia bi so
  • p10 −$500
  • p25 −$500
  • mfinimfini nɔma −$500
  • p75 +$40
  • p90 +$1,120
agorɔ bere 1,000 × kyinhyia 500 · y-axis no atwa wɔ ɔha nkyɛmu 1–99 (ano koraa −$500 kɔsi +$5,120) · kyinhyia 500 · bɛt a wofi ase $10 · nɔma baako bɛt

Sika pɛ a wɔto daa: roulette ɔkwanParoli roulette ɔkwan (Martingale a ɛdane)

Deɛ enti a ɛho hia agorɔfoɔ

Nsakraeɛ na ɛma agorɔ bere tiawa yɛ nea wontumi nhunu ho hwee, na ɛma tenten deɛ yɛ nea wobɛtumi ahunu ho. Sɛ σ = $100 na EV = −$27 wɔ kyinhyia 100 mu a, kasino mfasoɔ no yɛ nhyɛnhyɛ no nkyɛmu ɛnan mu baako, na agorɔ bere a wodi nkonim yɛ asɛm a ɛtaa ba. Kyinhyia 10,000 mu, EV yɛ −$2,700 na σ yɛ $1,000; seesei kasino mfasoɔ no bɛn nhyɛnhyɛ no mpɛn mmiɛnsa, na nkonim ntoatoasoɔ yɛ sigma mmiɛnsa asɛm. Nsakraeɛ yɛ agorɔfoɔ adamfo wɔ bere tiawa mu, na ɛyɛ kasino no deɛ wɔ bere tenten mu.

Bɛt a wɔaka abom nsakraeɛ

Bɛt pii wɔ kyinhyia baako so no, nsunsuansoɔ no fa wɔn ho (nkonim wɔ 17 so yɛ nkonim wɔ tuntumbɛtTuntumSika pɛ bɛt wɔ nɔma tuntum 18 no so. Franse kasa mu: noir.Kenkan ne nyinaa → ne dumienu kuobɛtDumienu kuo1–12, 13–24 anaa 25–36, akatua 2:1.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a ɛtɔ so mmienu so nso), enti nsakraeɛ no nka bom kwa. Bet Builder adwinnadeɛ no bu nsunsuansoɔ a ɛtrɛ ankasa ma agorɔ sikasikaAgorɔ sikaAdeɛ a ɛgyina hɔ ma sika dodoɔ bi a ɛnsesa, a wode to bɛt nhyehyɛe no so de to bɛt. Wɔfrɛ no nso check.Kenkan ne nyinaa → biara a woaka abom, denam nsunsuansoɔ 37 no nyinaa a ɛkan no so; ɛno nko ara ne ɔkwan a ɛteɛ.

Bɛt nhyehyɛ afidie

Akontaabu kwan

Var = p·W² + (1 − p) − EV²
σ = √Var
σ_agorɔ bere = σ · bɛt sika · √N

Nsɛmmisa

So nsakraeɛ a ɛkɔ soro kyerɛ sɛ odds no nye?

Daabi. Bɛt biara boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan yɛ pɛ. Nsakraeɛ a ɛkɔ soro kyerɛ nhinhim a ɛtrɛ wɔ ho.

Bɛt bɛn na ne nsakraeɛ sua sene biara?

Sika pɛ bɛtbɛtSika pɛ bɛtKɔkɔɔ/tuntum, ɛnkyɛ pɛ/ɛkyɛ pɛ, soro/fam. Nɔma 18, akatua 1:1.Kenkan ne nyinaa →, a σ ≈ 1 wɔ kyɛfa biara so. Ɛsan so tew bio wɔ la partagemmaraLa partageFranse mmara: sɛ hwee ba a, wɔsan de sika pɛ bɛt sika no fa ma. Ɛtew kasino mfasoɔ a ɛwɔ saa bɛt no so mu fa kɔ 1.35%.Kenkan ne nyinaa → mu, na ɛno nso ma mfinimfini boɔ no ye.

Adɛn nti na kasino ahodoɔ ma kwan ma bɛt a ne nsakraeɛ kɔ soro?

Mfasoɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan yɛ pɛ wɔ dɔla biara so; nsakraeɛ ka sɛdeɛ kasino no sika a ɛba no yɛ hinhim nko ara, na kasino wɔ agorɔfoɔ mpempem a wɔma ɛyɛ pɛ.

Akontaabu ho anigyeɛ

Di kan yɛ eyinom ara wo ho. Wɔakata mmuaeɛ biara so; sɛ woasiesie wo ho a, bue no.

  1. Agorɔfoɔ mmienu biara to $1 kyinhyia biara kyinhyia 100 wɔ Yuropu ntwahonan so, baako to kɔkɔɔbɛtKɔkɔɔSika pɛ bɛt wɔ nɔma kɔkɔɔ 18 no so. Franse kasa mu: rouge.Kenkan ne nyinaa → so daa, ɔfoforɔ no to 17 so daa. Hwan na ɔbɛdi kan wɔ awieeɛ no sen?

    Kyerɛ mmuaeɛ no

    Mmuaeɛ Agorɔfoɔ a ɔto 17 so no: 50.9%, sɛ wode toto 35.5% a ɛyɛ kɔkɔɔ deɛ ho a. Wɔn mmienu nyinaa hwere $2.70 wɔ mfinimfini mu.

    Kɔkɔɔ: agorɔfoɔ no di kan sɛ onya nkonim 51 anaa nea ɛboro saa wɔ 100 mu a, biara wɔ hokwanakontaabuHokwanHokwan a biribi bɛba, firi 0 kɔsi 1 anaa 0% kɔsi 100%. Nɔma baako: 1/37 = 2.70%.Kenkan ne nyinaa → 18/37 mu. Binomial nkyekyɛmu no ma 35.5%, na nkonim 50 pɛpɛɛpɛ, baabi a wonnya na wonhwere, 7.7% foforɔ.

    Nɔma 17: nkonim biara san de $36 ba, enti nkonim mmienu (−$28) nnɔɔso na mmiɛnsa (+$8) dɔɔso. Hokwan a ɛbɛba mprɛ mmiɛnsa anaa nea ɛboro saa wɔ kyinhyia 100 mu wɔ 1/37 so yɛ 50.9%.

    Nɔma baako bɛt agorɔfoɔ no di kan mpɛn pii, nanso nsunsuansoɔ no mmɔ pɛ: nkonim baako a ɛkɔ soro anaa fam tu nsunsuansoɔ no $36, na agorɔfoɔ a wɔwɔ akyi no taa wɔ akyiri kɛseɛ. Bollman (2024) de Amerika nɔma no ma, 26.5% ne 49.2%.

Serew kakra

Ahwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwan yɛ pɛ. Wɔn mu baako ka kyerɛ wo denden.

Ahwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwan yɛ pɛ. Wɔn mu baako ka kyerɛ wo denden.

Nsɛm fibea

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ti 13, roulette.
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, 3rd ed., 1968. Gambler’s ruin, ti XIV.
wɔsan hwɛɛ mu 2026-09-28nhwɛsoɔ: Yuropu, hwee baakoakontaabu ɔkwan ↗nsɛm fibea ↗