Asɛmmisa: awoda ntwahonan
Kyinhyia ahe na ɛba ansa na nɔma bi asan aba? Ɛsua koraa sen sɛdeɛ nnipa dodoɔ no susu.
Awoda asɛmmisa wɔ ntwahonan a ntokurunneɛma a wɔde diTokuruRotor no so tokuru 37 a nɔma wom no mu baako. Wɔfrɛ no nso slot, cup.Kenkan ne nyinaa → 37 wɔ so: kyinhyia 8 pɛ akyi no, hokwan a ɛsen fa wɔ hɔ sɛ nɔma bi aba mprenu dada. Agorɔfoɔ susu sɛ nsanɛ ba no yɛ nsɛsoɔ bi; nanso ɛyɛ deɛ wɔhwɛ kwan firi ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ hɔ.
Asɛmmisa no
Kyini Yuropu ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ. Kyinhyia ahe na ɛbɛba ansa na hokwanakontaabuHokwanHokwan a biribi bɛba, firi 0 kɔsi 1 anaa 0% kɔsi 100%. Nɔma baako: 1/37 = 2.70%.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a kyinhyia mmienu anaa deɛ ɛboro saa akyerɛ nɔma koro no ara bɛsen fa? Agorɔfoɔ dodoɔ no susu sɛ ɛbɛyɛ 18 anaa 19, 37 fa. Mmuaeɛ no yɛ 8.
Mmuaeɛ no
Bu hokwan a nsanɛ ba biara rennya na yi firi baako mu. Kyinhyia k akyi no, p(ne nyinaa yɛ soronko) = (37/37)(36/37)(35/37)…((38 − k)/37). Ma k = 8: 1 × 0.973 × 0.946 × 0.919 × 0.892 × 0.865 × 0.838 × 0.811 ≈ 0.44, ɛno nti p(nsanɛ ba bi) ≈ 0.56. Ma k = 14 ɛyɛ 0.93; ma k = 20 ɛyɛ 0.996. Adwene ka mfomsoɔ ɛfiri sɛ kyinhyia abien abien dodoɔ nyini te sɛ k², na abien abien biara bɛtumi ayɛ pɛ.
Adɛn nti na ɛho hia wɔ ɛpono no ho
Nkrataa pon a ɛkyerɛ nɔma 20 a ɛtwa toɔ no bɛkyerɛ nsanɛ ba baako bere biara bɛyɛ, na mpɛn pii no mmienu anaa mmiɛnsa. Agorɔfoɔ hu sɛ “17 baa mprenu wɔ kyinhyia du mu” na wɔsi gyinaeɛ sɛ 17 hye; awoda akontaabu no ka sɛ nsanɛ ba wɔ kyinhyia du mu ba bere no 74% mu na nɔma a ɛsan ba no ba kwa. Nsɛsoɔ no yɛ ampa; ne nkyerɛaseɛ no deɛ, ɛnyɛ ampa.
Asɛmmisa a ɛdi so
Kyinhyia ahe na ɛbɛba ansa na nɔma pɔtee bi, sɛ yɛbɛka a 17, aba mprenu? Ɛno yɛ asɛmmisa soronko a ne mmuaeɛ yɛ kɛseɛ koraa: twɛn a wɔhwɛ kwan yɛ kyinhyia 74, na hokwan a 17 mmienu bɛba wɔ kyinhyia 20 mu yɛ bɛyɛ 10%. Nsonsonoeɛ a ɛda “nɔma bi san ba” (kyinhyia 8) ne “nɔma yi san ba” (kyinhyia 74) ntam no ne nsonsonoeɛ nyinaa a ɛda nsɛsoɔ a wohu akyire ne nkɔmhyɛ a wode ma ansa ntam.
Sɔ hwɛ
Di Demo Game no kyinhyia du na hwɛ abakɔsɛm no. Mpɛn pii no, nsanɛ ba bi bɛba. San di bio. Nɔma a ɛsan ba no bɛyɛ soronko. Yɛ saa mpɛn du na woahu awoda asɛmmisaakontaabuAwoda asɛmmisaNnipa dodoɔ a ɛhia ansa na ebia baanu bɛnya awoda koro, anaa kyinhyia dodoɔ a ɛhia ansa na ebia nɔma bi bɛsan aba. Wɔ ntwahonan a ntokuru 37 wom so no, kyinhyia 8 dɔɔso ma hokwan a ɛboro fa.Kenkan ne nyinaa → no; yɛ no mpɛn apem (sɔhwɛ agorɔ no tumi yɛ) na woasusu no.
Akontaabu kwan
Nsɛmmisa
Pɛpɛɛpɛ, a ntokuru 37 na ɛwɔ hɔ sen nna 365. Nnipa 23 ma 50% ma awoda; kyinhyia 8 ma 56% ma ntwahonan no.
50% wɔ bɛyɛ kyinhyia 19 akyi. Ɛda so yɛ adeɛ a ɛtaa ba.
Dabi. Kyinhyia mpempem a ɛfiri ntwahonan baako so bɛkyerɛ; nsanɛ ba deɛ, ɛnkyerɛ da.
Akontaabu ho anigyeɛ
Di kan yɛ eyinom ara wo ho. Wɔakata mmuaeɛ biara so; sɛ woasiesie wo ho a, bue no.
Nea efi mu ba pon bi a ɛwɔ Amerika ntwahonan nkyɛn kyerɛ kyinhyia 16 a atwam no. Hokwan bɛn na ɛwɔ hɔ sɛ nɔma biara remma mprɛ mmienu wɔ so?
Kyerɛ mmuaeɛ no
Mmuaeɛ Bɛyɛ 2.5%: bɛyɛ pon 39 wɔ 40 mu kyerɛ nɔma baako a ɛsan ba bio.
Kɔ kyinhyia biara so. Kyinhyia a edi kan no tumi yɛ biribiara. Ɛtɔ so mmienu no ɛsɛ sɛ ɛmma saa nɔma no: hokwan 37 wɔ 38 mu. Ɛtɔ so mmiɛnsa no ɛsɛ sɛ ɛmma ne mmienu no: 36 wɔ 38 mu. Ɛtɔ so dunsia no ɛsɛ sɛ ɛmma nɔma dunum no: 23 wɔ 38 mu.
Bɔ wɔn: 38/38 × 37/38 × 36/38 × … × 23/38 ≈ 0.0246.
Pon a nɔma biara nsan mma so no na ɛmma. Pon a nɔma bi san ba so no nka hwee fa ntwahonan no ho.
Wɔ Yuropu ntwahonan kyinhyia du mu no, hokwan bɛn na ɛwɔ hɔ sɛ 17 bɛba mprɛ enum pɛpɛɛpɛ? Sɛ nɔma bi, nɔma biara, bɛba mprɛ enum anaa nea ɛboro saa? Na sɛ nɔma bi bɛba mprɛ mmiɛnsa anaa nea ɛboro saa wɔ kyinhyia ɛnan mu?
Kyerɛ mmuaeɛ no
Mmuaeɛ 17 mprɛ enum pɛpɛɛpɛ: 315,576 mu 1. Nɔma bi mprɛ enum anaa nea ɛboro saa: bɛyɛ 8,333 mu 1. Nɔma bi mprɛ mmiɛnsa anaa nea ɛboro saa wɔ kyinhyia ɛnan mu: 349 mu 1.
17 mprɛ enum: yi kyinhyia du no mu enum, akwan 252, a biara hokwan yɛ (1/37)⁵ × (36/37)⁵. Ne nyinaa, 315,576 mu 1.
Nɔma bi: nɔma 37 no mu biara wɔ hokwan 308,325 mu 1 sɛ ɛbɛba mprɛ enum anaa nea ɛboro saa, a ɛma 308,325 mu 37, anaa 8,333 mu 1. Asɛm a ɛmma no, nɔma mmienu a biara ba mprɛ enum, wɔkan no mprɛ mmienu, nanso sɛ woyi fi mu a, ɛnsesa hwee wɔ saa pɛpɛɛpɛ yi mu.
Mprɛ mmiɛnsa wɔ kyinhyia ɛnan mu: ma nɔma baako, 4 × 36 + 1 = 145 wɔ nea ebetumi afi mu aba 37⁴ no mu; ma nɔma 37 no mu biara, 145/37³ = 349 mu 1.
Wɔ hweentwahonanHweeTokuru ahabammono baako a sika pɛ bɛt, dumienu kuo bɛt anaa santen tee bɛt biara nkata so; kasino mfasoɔ fibea. Wɔfrɛ no nso hwee baako, 0.Kenkan ne nyinaa → mmienu ntwahonan so no, akontaabu a ɛne no hyia yɛ 359,275 mu 1, 9,243 mu 1 ne 368 mu 1. Nsonsonoeɛ a ɛda “17” ne “nɔma bi” ntam no yɛ awoda asɛmmisaakontaabuAwoda asɛmmisaNnipa dodoɔ a ɛhia ansa na ebia baanu bɛnya awoda koro, anaa kyinhyia dodoɔ a ɛhia ansa na ebia nɔma bi bɛsan aba. Wɔ ntwahonan a ntokuru 37 wom so no, kyinhyia 8 dɔɔso ma hokwan a ɛboro fa.Kenkan ne nyinaa → no bio: akwan 37 wɔ hɔ a wɔfa so ma wo ho dwiriw wo.
Serew kakra
Biribi san ba ntɛm. Saa biribi no ba kwa.
Nsɛm fibea
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, roulette nsɛmmisa.