D'Alembert roulette ɔkwan
D’Alembert roulette ɔkwan no de kyɛfa baako ka ho wɔ ahwereɛ akyi, na ɛyi baako firi mu wɔ nkonim akyi.
Ɛnni ntwahonan no so nkonim. Ɛyɛ bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔɔkwanBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔMmara biara a ɛsesa bɛt sika no gyina deɛ atwam so. Ntoatoasoɔ a ɛkɔ soro ahwereɛ akyi ma no kɔ soro ahwereɛ akyi, na deɛ ɛkɔ soro nkonim akyi ma no kɔ soro nkonim akyi.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a ɛtaa ba no mu deɛ ɛyɛ tamaa sen biara: bɛt sika kɔ soro brɛoo, dwetire so tew no yɛ mfinimfini, na kasino mfasoɔ no nsesa koraa.
Nantew nhyehyɛe no mu
Ahwereɛ de wo foro anammɔn baako. Nkonim san wo akyi anammɔn baako.
Bɛt sika ne deɛ ɛfiri mu ba no wɔ bɛt a wofi ase no kyɛfa mu.
D’Alembert roulette nhyehyɛe no, anammɔn biara
To kyɛfasikaKyɛfaBɛt sika a ɛwɔ ase a nhyehyɛe anaa agorɔfoɔ de yɛ adwuma. Wɔka bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ ho asɛm wɔ kyɛfa mu sɛdeɛ ɛbɛyɛ a ɛbɛfata ɛpono biara.Kenkan ne nyinaa → baako. Sɛ wohwere a, bɛt a ɛdi hɔ no kɔ soro kyɛfa baako. Sɛ wodi nkonim a, ɛsiane kyɛfa baako, nanso ɛnsi baako ase da. Ɛno ara ne no. Fa no sɛ dua a mmɔfra di so agorɔ a ɛkɔ soro ba fam: ahwereɛ biara ma bɛt sika no kɔ soro kakra, na nkonim biara ma ɛsan ba fam. Gyidie a ɛhyɛ ase ne sɛ nkonim ne ahwereɛ bɛyɛ pɛ, ɛno nti bɛt sika no bɛsan aba ahyɛaseɛ no so. Deɛ ɛtwetwe nnipa ne sɛ nkonim baako ne ahwereɛ baako biara a ɛwɔ bɛt sika a ɛbɛn so ma kyɛfa +1: hwere 3, di 4 nkonim, mfasoɔ ankasa +1.
Agorɔ bere bi te sɛn?
Ɛyɛ dinn, na bɛt sika no kɔ soro nkakrankakra. Esiane sɛ sika pɛ bɛt so ahwereɛ dɔɔso sen nkonim 19 ma 18 nti, bɛt sika no kɔ soro brɛoo wɔ agorɔ bere tenten mu. Esiane sɛ bɛt sika no kɔ soro sen biara bere a woahwere, na ɛsiane bere a wodi nkonim nti, bɛt sika mfinimfini wɔ ahwereɛ mmere mu sen deɛ ɛwɔ nkonim mmere mu. Agorɔ bere no yɛ dinn sen MartingaleɔkwanMartingaleBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ a ɛbɔ bɛt no mmɔho mmienu ahwereɛ biara akyi. Hwɛ Akwan ɔfa no na hunu deɛ ɛyɛ ne deɛ ɛnyɛ.Kenkan ne nyinaa →, dwetire so tewsikaDwetire so tewSɛdeɛ agorɔ dwetire tew firi ne soro pɛɛ kɔ fam akyire wɔ agorɔ bere baako mu. Dwetire so tew a ɛsen biara ne deɛ ɛso yɛ kɛseɛ sene biara.Kenkan ne nyinaa → no yɛ mfinimfini na abotan ano biara nni hɔ, na ɛhwere kakra sen sika pɛ a wɔto daaɔkwanSika pɛ a wɔto daaSika dodoɔ koro no ara a wode to bɛt kyinhyia biara. Ɛno ne gyinapɛn a wɔde bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ biara toto ho.Kenkan ne nyinaa → wɔ mfinimfini mu, ɛfiri sɛ bɛt sika mfinimfini no kɔ soro.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- mfinimfini nɔma −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
D’Alembert nhyehyɛe no yɛ adwuma?
Dabi. Agorɔ bere a nkonim ne ahwereɛ yɛ pɛ di nkonim, nanso agorɔ bere ntena pɛ daa. Nkonim w ne ahwereɛ l a ɛwɔ bɛt sika a ɛbɛn so akyi no, deɛ ɛka yɛ kyɛfa w − l ne nsiesie bi a ɛgyina baabi a na wowɔ atrapoe no so. Sɛ w = l a, deɛ ɛfiri mu ba yɛ kyɛfa +w pɛpɛɛpɛ, a ɛte sɛ mfasoɔ a ɛyɛ pintinn. Asɛm no ne sɛ w = l nyɛ deɛ wɔhwɛ kwan: wɔ kyinhyia 37 mu no, wohwɛ kwan sɛ wobɛdi nkonim 18 na woahwere 19. Ahwereɛ baako a ɛka ho wɔ bɛt sika a aforo akɔ, sɛ yɛbɛka a, kyɛfa 8 so no bɔ ka sen +1 abien abien nwɔtwe a ɛbaa no. Deɛ wɔhwɛ kwan no ba −1/37 wɔ bɛt sika nyinaasikaBɛt sika nyinaaSika nyinaa a wɔde to bɛt wɔ agorɔ bere anaa bere bi mu, a nkonim sika a wɔsan de to ka ho. Wɔfrɛ no nso handle, action.Kenkan ne nyinaa → so, sɛdeɛ ɛsɛ sɛ ɛba no.
Adɛn nti na agorɔ bere tiatia taa di nkonim?
Asɛm a nkonim ne ahwereɛ yɛ pɛ no yɛ mmara baako a ɛfa agorɔ bere biara ho no fa. Frɛ D ahwereɛ dodoɔ yi nkonim dodoɔ firi mu. Agorɔ bere a kyinhyia N wom a ɛfiri kyɛfa baako so hyɛ aseɛ no ba awieeɛ wɔ kyɛfa (N − D²)/2 − D, sɛ bɛt a ɛyɛ kyɛfa baako biara anni nkonim a (sɛ saa nkonim no ba a, baabi biara nni hɔ a bɛt sika no bɛtumi asiane akɔ). Sɛ D = 0 a, ɛyɛ +N/2, +w a ɛwɔ ɔfa a ɛwɔ soro no mu no. Ahwereɛ biara a ɛka ho no, wɔbu no mmɔho (squared): kyinhyia 100 akyi no, D a ɛyɛ 4 da so gya kyɛfa +38, D a ɛyɛ 8 gya +10, na D a ɛyɛ 10 gya −10. Akyinnyeɛ ankasa trɛtrɛ D mu bɛyɛ √N, du wɔ kyinhyia 100 akyi, na wɔ agorɔ a hweentwahonanHweeTokuru ahabammono baako a sika pɛ bɛt, dumienu kuo bɛt anaa santen tee bɛt biara nkata so; kasino mfasoɔ fibea. Wɔfrɛ no nso hwee baako, 0.Kenkan ne nyinaa → nni mu no, agorɔ bere bebree a ɛyɛ pɛ no mfasoɔ ne kakraa bi a ɛnyɛ pɛ no ahwereɛ pepa wɔn ho wɔn ho pɛpɛɛpɛ. Hwee no de ahwereɛ baako ka ho kyinhyia 37 biara mu wɔ mfinimfini mu, na esiane sɛ wɔbu D mmɔho nti, ne ka no nyini ntɛm sen agorɔ bere no. Agorɔ bere a kyinhyia kɔsi 100 wom no mu dodoɔ no ba awieeɛ a mfasoɔ wom; mfinimfini no deɛ, ɛnyɛ saa da, na sɛ ɛtwa kyinhyia ɔhaha kakraa bi a, agorɔ bere dodoɔ no nso hwere.
Na sɛ wodane no ɛ?
Contra-D’Alembert, a wɔsan frɛ no D’Alembert a wɔadane no, de kyɛfa baako ka ho wɔ nkonim akyi na ɛyi baako firi mu wɔ ahwereɛ akyi. Ɛyɛ deɛ edi kan no ahwehwɛ mu nsɛsoɔ pɛpɛɛpɛ. Sɛ bɛt a ɛyɛ kyɛfa baako biara anhwere a, agorɔ bere a kyinhyia N wom no ba awieeɛ wɔ kyɛfa (D² − N)/2 + D, a seesei D yɛ nkonim yi ahwereɛ firi mu. Agorɔ bere a ɛyɛ pɛ hwere kyɛfa fa wɔ kyinhyia biara mu, na nkonim ntoatoasoɔ a ɛsen ahwereɛ no koraa nko ara na ɛma mfasoɔ. Ɛno nti agorɔ bere dodoɔ no hwere kakra na kakraa bi di nkonim pii, a ɛne deɛ edi kan no nsɛsoɔ bɔ abira, na mfinimfini no yɛ 2.70% koro no ara wɔ sika a wode ato no so.
Hwan ne d’Alembert?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, akontaabufoɔ ne Encyclopédie no samufoɔ baako, kyerɛw wɔ nsɛm bi a ɛfiri afe 1754 mu sɛ ti ntoatoasoɔ akyi no, akyi ba hokwan kɛseɛ. Ne nsɛm no nyɛ nokorɛ, na adwene mfomsoɔ a ɛde ne din no yɛ sika agorɔfoɔ adwene mfomsoɔ no bi. Akyire yi na sika agorɔfoɔ a wɔwɔ gyidie koro no ara de ne din too D’Alembert nhyehyɛe a ɛwɔ roulette mu no so. Ɛnyɛ ɔno na ɔyɛeɛ, na ebia anka ɔrenpene so.
Ɛwɔ ahodoɔ foforɔ?
Contra-D’Alembert a ɛwɔ soro hɔ no yɛ te sɛ ParoliɔkwanParoliBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ a ɛkɔ soro nkonim akyi: bɔ no mmɔho mmienu nkonim akyi, san fi ase ahwereɛ akyi anaa nkonim mmiɛnsa a ɛtoa so akyi. Wɔfrɛ no nso Martingale a ɛdane.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a ɛyɛ dinn. Agorɔfoɔ binom de kyɛfa mmienu ka ho wɔ ahwereɛ akyi na wɔyi baako firi mu wɔ nkonim akyi, a ɛma atrapoe no foro kɔ Martingale fam. Ne ahodoɔ nyinaa wɔ ahwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanakontaabuAhwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanBoɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan bɔ bɛt sika nyinaa ho; ahwereɛ mfinimfini boɔ wɔ agorɔ bere anaa bere bi mu.Kenkan ne nyinaa → koro no ara wɔ kyɛfa biara a wode to so.
Sɔhwɛ agorɔ · D'Alembert
Agorɔ bere 2,000 a ɛyɛ sika pɛ bɛt a ɛfiri agorɔ dwetire $1,000 so.
Bɛt a wofi ase $10 · ɛpono ahyeɛ $500 · kyinhyia 100 wɔ agorɔ bere biara mu
Mprɛ dodoɔ a ahwereɛ ntoatoasoɔ ba
Sika pɛ bɛt wɔ hwee baako ntwahonan so hwere kyinhyia 19 wɔ 37 mu. Santen biara kyerɛ hokwan a ɛbɛma kyinhyia ntoatoasoɔ bi nyinaa ahwere, ne sika a D’Alembert agorɔfoɔ, a ɔde bɛt a ɔfi ase baako ka ho ahwereɛ biara akyi, ahwere kɔsi saa bere no.
| ahwereɛ a ɛtoa so | hokwan | bɛyɛ 1 wɔ mu | ahwereɛ kɔsi seesei | bɛt a ɛdi so |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Hokwan no yɛ 19/37 a wɔde bɔ ne ho mmɔho mprɛ baako ahwereɛ biara mu, a wɔfiri kyinhyia baako bi so kan. Agorɔ bere tenten wɔ kyinhyia pii a ntoatoasoɔ a ɛte saa betumi afi ase, enti anwummerɛ mu no, ɛbɛtumi aba sene sɛdeɛ santen baako kyerɛ.
Nsɛmmisa
Abotan ano biara nni hɔ, a ɛma ɛyɛ nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ a ɛgyina ahwereɛ so a ɛyɛ dinn sen biara. Ne boɔ nyɛ fo sen sika pɛ a wɔto daa; ne boɔ yɛ den kakra.
Ɛpono ahyeɛɛponoƐpono ahyeɛBɛt sika ase koraa ne soro koraa a wɔma kwan. Ahyeɛ soro no na ɛsiw mmɔho mmienu bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ.Kenkan ne nyinaa → no anaa wo agorɔ dwetiresikaAgorɔ dwetireSika a woayi asie nyinaa ama agorɔ. Agorɔ dwetire so hwɛ ne sɛ wobɛsi gyinaeɛ wɔ dodoɔ a wode bɛto asiane mu wɔ bɛt biara ne agorɔ bere biara mu.Kenkan ne nyinaa → nko ara. Wɔ ahwereɛ agorɔ bere tenten mu no, ɛkɔ soro daa.
Akontaabu ho anigyeɛ
Di kan yɛ eyinom ara wo ho. Wɔakata mmuaeɛ biara so; sɛ woasiesie wo ho a, bue no.
Wode D’Alembert di agorɔ wɔ kɔkɔɔbɛtKɔkɔɔSika pɛ bɛt wɔ nɔma kɔkɔɔ 18 no so. Franse kasa mu: rouge.Kenkan ne nyinaa → so kyinhyia 50, wode kyɛfasikaKyɛfaBɛt sika a ɛwɔ ase a nhyehyɛe anaa agorɔfoɔ de yɛ adwuma. Wɔka bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ ho asɛm wɔ kyɛfa mu sɛdeɛ ɛbɛyɛ a ɛbɛfata ɛpono biara.Kenkan ne nyinaa → baako hyɛ aseɛ, na wonni bɛt a ɛyɛ kyɛfa baako nkonim da (sɛ ɛdi nkonim saa a, anka bɛt sika no nni baabi a ɛbɛba fam akɔ). Wowie a woahwere mprɛ 27 na woadi nkonim mprɛ 23. Woadi kyɛfa ahe so anaa woahwere ahe? Na sɛ woahwere 29 na woadi 21 nkonim nso ɛ?
Kyerɛ mmuaeɛ no
Mmuaeɛ Kyɛfa +13 wɔ ahwereɛ 27 so, kyɛfa −15 wɔ 29 so. Kyinhyia mmienu wɔ aduonum mu a ɛkɔ ɔkwan foforɔ so gye kyɛfa 28.
Frɛ ahwereɛ a woayi nkonim afiri mu no D. Deɛ ɛfiri mu ba yɛ (N − D²)/2 − D ma kyinhyia N. Ahwereɛ 27 ne nkonim 23 so no, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. 29 ne 21 so no, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Deɛ enti a mmara no yɛ nokware: bɛt sika no yɛ daa kyɛfa baako ka ahwereɛ a aba dada ho tew nkonim a aba dada. Ahwereɛ biara a nkonim a ɛba akyiri pepa no yɛ abien abien, hwere s na afei di s + 1 nkonim, a ankasa ɛyɛ kyɛfa +1, sɛdeɛ pon a ɛwɔ soro no kyerɛ no. Wɔ kyinhyia N mu no, abien abien (N − D)/2 saa ba, a ɛsom +(N − D)/2. Ahwereɛ D a aka no, wɔde too bɛt sika 1, 2 … D so bere a na ɛrekɔ soro na wɔmpepaa da; ɛgye 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Ne nyinaa bom: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Ahinanan no ne asɛm no nyinaa. Agorɔ bere a ɛyɛ pɛ tua kyɛfa fa kyinhyia biara, na anammɔn biara a ɛtwe firi pɛpɛɛpɛ ho gye ka sen deɛ ɛdi n'anim.
Wode reverse D’Alembert di agorɔ wɔ kɔkɔɔ so kyinhyia 100, wode kyɛfa baako hyɛ aseɛ, na bɛt a ɛyɛ kyɛfa baako biara nhwere da. Wowie a woadi nkonim 52 na woahwere 48. Wogyina he? Na sɛ woadi nkonim 60 na woahwere 40 nso ɛ?
Kyerɛ mmuaeɛ no
Mmuaeɛ Kyɛfa −38 wɔ nkonim 52 so, +170 wɔ 60 so. Nkonim a ɛboro kakra da so hwere; deɛ ɛboro kɛseɛ nko ara na ɛtua.
Frɛ nkonim a woayi ahwereɛ afiri mu no D. Deɛ ɛfiri mu ba yɛ (D² − N)/2 + D ma kyinhyia N.
Nkonim 52 ne ahwereɛ 48: D = 4, enti (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Nkonim 60 ne ahwereɛ 40: D = 20, enti (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Deɛ enti: nkonim biara a ahwereɛ a ɛba akyiri pepa no yɛ abien abien, di nkonim wɔ s so na afei hwere wɔ s + 1 so, a ankasa ɛyɛ −1. Nkonim D a aka no, wɔde too bɛt sika 1, 2 … D so bere a na ɛrekɔ soro na wɔmpepa da; ɛde D(D + 1)/2 ba. Wɔ kyinhyia N mu no, abien abien (N − D)/2 ba, enti ne nyinaa yɛ D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ɛyɛ tete D’Alembert mmara no a wɔadane agyiraeɛ no: ɛhɔ deɛ, pɛpɛɛpɛ di kyɛfa fa nkonim kyinhyia biara na wɔtwe nsonsonoeɛ aso; ha deɛ, pɛpɛɛpɛ gye kyɛfa fa kyinhyia biara na wɔtua nsonsonoeɛ ka.
Serew kakra
Wɔde akontaabufoɔ bi a ɔkaa sika kɔɔbere ho asɛm mfomsoɔ din na ɛtoo no.
Nsɛm fibea
- RouletteDoc. Ɔkwan no ho nkyerɛkyerɛmu ne nhwɛsoɔ.
- Roulette77. Ɔkwan no ho nkyerɛkyerɛmu ne nhwɛsoɔ.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.