Akontaabu mu nnyinasoɔ
“Nnyinasoɔ wom” kyerɛ sɛ ɛnntaa mma wɔ ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ so, ɛnkyerɛ sɛ “ɛyɛ nokorɛ”, na ɛnkyerɛ sɛ “ɛma mfasoɔ”.
p-boɔ 0.05 kyerɛ sɛ ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ bɛma nhyehyɛe a ɛkɔ ɔfa baako so saa prɛ baako wɔ aduonu mu. Sɛ wohwɛ ntwahonan aduonu mu a, baako bɛtwam akɔntɔnkye so.
Deɛ p-boɔ yɛ
HokwanakontaabuHokwanHokwan a biribi bɛba, firi 0 kɔsi 1 anaa 0% kɔsi 100%. Nɔma baako: 1/37 = 2.70%.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a wobɛhu nsonsonoeɛ a ɛyɛ kɛseɛ te sɛ deɛ wohunuiɛ no anaa ɛboro so, sɛ ntwahonan no yɛ pɛ a. Ɛyɛ asɛm a ɛfa nsɛm ho wɔ susuo bi ase, ɛnyɛ ntwahonan no ho. p-boɔnhwehwɛmu danp-boɔHokwan a wobɛhunu nsonsonoeɛ a ɛso te sɛ deɛ wohunuu no anaa ɛboro saa, sɛ ntwahonan no yɛ pɛ a.Kenkan ne nyinaa → 0.03 ka sɛ: ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ yɛ saa 3% wɔ bere mu. Ɛnka sɛ: hokwan 97% wɔ hɔ sɛ ntwahonan no yɛ animhwɛ. Asɛm a ɛtɔ so mmienu no bɛhia sɛ wonim sɛdeɛ ntwahonan a ɛyɛ animhwɛnhwehwɛmu danNtwahonan a ɛyɛ animhwɛNtwahonan a ne honam so mfomsoɔ ma ntokuru bi hokwan boro 1/37. Ɛnnsɛ ho pii, na wobɛtumi ahunu no ɛnkyɛ sɛ wode kyinhyia mpempem a woakyerɛw ahwɛ.Kenkan ne nyinaa → taa ba fiti aseɛ, na wɔ ɛnnɛ kasino mu no, wɔntaa mma koraa, na ɛno ma ɛyɛ deɛ ɛbɛtumi aba sɛ deɛ ɛbaeɛ baako a ɛkyerɛ nnyinasoɔ yɛ akɔntɔnkye kɛkɛ sen sɛ ɛyɛ nhunumu.
Ntotoho pii
Sɔhwɛ biara a woyɛ wɔ ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ so wɔ hokwan 5% sɛ ɛbɛtwam wɔ 5% so. Sɔ ntwahonan aduonu hwɛ na baako bɛtwam. Sɔ ntwahonan baako hwɛ wɔ bere aduonu mu na baako bɛtwam. Sɔ nhwɛsoɔ baako hwɛ wɔ tokurunneɛma a wɔde diTokuruRotor no so tokuru 37 a nɔma wom no mu baako. Wɔfrɛ no nso slot, cup.Kenkan ne nyinaa → akuo 37, ɔfantwahonanƆfaNtokuru a ɛtoa so wɔ ntwahonan no so, a ɛnyɛ kuo a ɛwɔ bɛt nhyehyɛe no so.Kenkan ne nyinaa → akuo nsia ne kɔla akuo mmiɛnsa so na biribi bɛtwam. Ano aduro ne sɛ wobɛsi sɔhwɛ no ho gyinaeɛ ansa na woahwɛ nsɛm no, woayɛ no prɛ baako, na wode nsɛm foforɔ asi so dua. Hwehwɛ a ɛhunu ntwahonan a “ɛyɛ animhwɛ” no na ɛtaa de deɛ ɛbaeɛ no ba.
Nnyinasoɔ ne kɛseɛ
Nhwɛsoɔ kɛseɛ koraa bɛtumi ama animhwɛ ketewa bi akyerɛ nnyinasoɔ. Tokuru a ɛba wɔ 1/36.5 mmom sen 1/37 no yɛ mfomsoɔ ankasa a ɛbɛkyerɛ nnyinasoɔ wɔ kyinhyia ɔpepem kakraa bi mu, nanso ɛbɛhwere sika da so wɔ 35 tia 1 akatuasikaAkatuaDeɛ bɛt a edi nkonim de ma, a wɔka no sɛ “X tia 1” ka bɛt sika a ɛsan ba no ho.Kenkan ne nyinaa → so. Deɛ ɛho hia ma agorɔfoɔ ne nkɛntɛnsoɔ no kɛseɛ: so tokuru bi ba wɔ 1/36 anaa ɛboro so, na ɛboro so sɛn? Chi-square no ka ntwahonan no ho asɛm kyerɛ wo; sɛdeɛ tokuru no taa ba nko ara na ɛka bɛt no ho asɛm kyerɛ wo.
Tumi
Mfomsoɔ foforɔ no ne sɛ wobɛmmfa animhwɛ a ɛwɔ hɔ. Sɛ kyinhyia 1,000 wɔ hɔ a, tokuru a ɛba wɔ 1/30 (animhwɛ kɛseɛ koraa) no, wohunu no bɛyɛ mpɛn fa pɛ wɔ 5% so. Nhwɛsoɔ dodoɔ, ɛnyɛ nyansa, na ɛsiesie eyi. Nhwɛsoɔ dodoɔ krataafa no ma nɔma no.
Gyinapɛn a wotumi de di dwuma
Sɛ animhwɛ ho asɛm bɛyɛ deɛ ɛho hia a: sɔhwɛ a woayi dada, p < 0.01 mmom sen 0.05, sɛ wobɛsan ayɛ bio wɔ nhwɛsoɔ a ɛmfa ho a ne dodoɔ te saa ara so, ne sɛdeɛ ntokuru a wɔboa wɔn no taa ba a wɔsusu sɛ ɛyɛ 1/34 anaa ɛboro so wɔ bere a woasan ayɛ bio akyi. Wɔaduru saa gyinapɛn no mpɛn kakraa bi pɛ wɔ agorɔ no abakɔsɛm mu, na sɛdeɛ ɔmanfoɔ nkyerɛwee kyerɛ no, wɔnnuruu da wɔ ɛnnɛ ntwahonan a wɔhwɛ so yie so.
Nsɛmmisa
Amammerɛ a ɛfiri 1920 mfeɛ no mu. Biribiara nni ho a ɛyɛ soronko; 0.01 yɛ gyinapɛn a ntease wom kɛseɛ bere a worehwɛ ntwahonan pii mu.
Ebia ɛmma nsɛm a ɛyɛ pɛ. Ebia ɛyɛ dila nkɛntɛnsoɔ, nkyerɛwee mfomsoɔ anaa nsɛm a wɔde hyɛɛ mu ho ɔhaw. San yɛ bio.
Dabi. Ɛka kyerɛ wo sɛ nhyehyɛe no nteɛ. Ntwahonan afa ho nhwehwɛmu ne nkɛntɛnsoɔ kɛseɛ na ɛka baabi kyerɛ wo.
Akontaabu ho anigyeɛ
Di kan yɛ eyinom ara wo ho. Wɔakata mmuaeɛ biara so; sɛ woasiesie wo ho a, bue no.
Wɔka sɛ hweentwahonanHweeTokuru ahabammono baako a sika pɛ bɛt, dumienu kuo bɛt anaa santen tee bɛt biara nkata so; kasino mfasoɔ fibea. Wɔfrɛ no nso hwee baako, 0.Kenkan ne nyinaa → mmienu ntwahonan bi ma dumienu kuobɛtDumienu kuo1–12, 13–24 anaa 25–36, akatua 2:1.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a edi kan no baa mprɛ 742 wɔ kyinhyia 3,000 mu. Gyinapɛn nsakraeɛakontaabuGyinapɛn nsakraeɛNsakraeɛ ntini; ntam kwan a ɛtaa da deɛ ɛfiri mu ba ne boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan ntam.Kenkan ne nyinaa → ahe na ɛwɔ mfinimfini boɔ no ase, na mpɛn ahe na ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ bɛyɛ saa?
Kyerɛ mmuaeɛ no
Mmuaeɛ Bɛyɛ gyinapɛn nsakraeɛ 8.1 wɔ fam. Ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ bɛyɛ saa bɛyɛ mprɛ baako wɔ sɔhwɛ 3 × 10¹⁵ mu, a ɛkyerɛ sɛ da. Mmuaeɛ a wɔde asɛmmisa no tintimii no ka sɛ 11.75; yɛn deɛ yɛ 8.07.
Dumienu kuo a edi kan no kura ntokurunneɛma a wɔde diTokuruRotor no so tokuru 37 a nɔma wom no mu baako. Wɔfrɛ no nso slot, cup.Kenkan ne nyinaa → 38 no mu 12. Wɔ kyinhyia 3,000 mu no, ne mfinimfini boɔ yɛ 3,000 × 12/38 = mprɛ 947.4, a ne trɛ yɛ √(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.
742 wɔ mfinimfini boɔ no ase 205.4: 205.4/25.5 = trɛ 8.07.
Ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ ho tɔ trɛ mmiɛnsa bɛyɛ mprɛ baako wɔ sɔhwɛ 740 mu; trɛ nwɔtwe deɛ, bɛyɛ mprɛ baako wɔ 3 × 10¹⁵ mu (dɔn nhwɛsoɔ, ɔfa baako). Sɛ wobu sɛ ɔkenkanfoɔ no hunuu dumienu kuo mmiɛnsa no mu deɛ ɛyɛ bɔne sen biara a, ɛnsesa biribiara a ɛho hia. Nsunsuansoɔ a ɛte saa ka sɛ ntwahonan no, anaa akontaa no, nteɛ. Wɔ hwee baako ntwahonan so no, akontaa korɔ no ara bɛyɛ trɛ 9.0 wɔ fam (mfinimfini boɔ 973.0, trɛ 25.6).
Serew kakra
Ntwahonan a ɛyɛ pɛ baako wɔ aduonu mu “wɔ nnyinasoɔ”. Ɛno na nɔma no kyerɛ.
Nsɛm fibea
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, roulette questions.