Nkyerɛkyerɛmu · Nkyerɛkyerɛmu · simma 6

Nkyerɛkyerɛmu: 1-3-2-6

Bɛt sika kyɛfa 1, 3, 2 ne 6 wɔ nkonim a ɛtoatoa so mu, na sɛ wohwere a, san kɔ 1 so. Bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔɔkwanBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔMmara biara a ɛsesa bɛt sika no gyina deɛ atwam so. Ntoatoasoɔ a ɛkɔ soro ahwereɛ akyi ma no kɔ soro ahwereɛ akyi, na deɛ ɛkɔ soro nkonim akyi ma no kɔ soro nkonim akyi.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a ɛkɔ soro no, kyinhyia biara so.

Mmuaeɛ tiawa

1-3-2-6 agorɔ bere a ɛyɛ sɔhwɛ, kyinhyia 60, $10 kyɛfa biara so wɔ kɔkɔɔbɛtKɔkɔɔSika pɛ bɛt wɔ nɔma kɔkɔɔ 18 no so. Franse kasa mu: rouge.Kenkan ne nyinaa → so. Mmɔden aduasa mmiɛnsa: dunsia twaa anammɔn a edi kan, nson twaa anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmienu, na mmienu wiee pɛyɛ, +$120 biara. Awieeɛ no −$50, na kane no na ɛkɔɔ soro +$80. Ɛyɛ Paroli a ɔhome bere wom.

kyɛfa

$10 wɔ kɔkɔɔ so

ntoatoasoɔ

1 → 3 → 2 → 6

p(ɛwie pɛyɛ)

5.6%

mfasoɔ ankasa sɛ ɛwie a

+$120

Nantew nhyehyɛe no mu

Nkonim de wo kɔ anim anammɔn baako. Ahwereɛ, anaa nkonim a ɛtɔ so ɛnan, san kɔ mfitiaseɛ.

bɛt sika a ɛdi so1deɛ aba kɔsi seesei0kyinhyia0

Bɛt sika ne deɛ ɛfiri mu ba no wɔ bɛt a wofi ase no kyɛfa mu.

Nhyehyɛe no

To bɛt kyɛfasikaKyɛfaBɛt sika a ɛwɔ ase a nhyehyɛe anaa agorɔfoɔ de yɛ adwuma. Wɔka bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ ho asɛm wɔ kyɛfa mu sɛdeɛ ɛbɛyɛ a ɛbɛfata ɛpono biara.Kenkan ne nyinaa → 1. Sɛ wodi nkonim a, to 3 (2 a ɛda ɛpono no so seesei ne yɛn deɛ 1 ka ho). Sɛ wodi nkonim ne mprɛ mmienu so a, to 2 na fa nkaeɛ no sie. Sɛ wodi nkonim ne mprɛ mmiɛnsa so a, to 6. Nkonim a ɛtɔ so ɛnan no wie ntoatoasoɔ no ma kyɛfa +12; ahwereɛ biara de wo san kɔ 1 so. Wɔahyehyɛ ntoatoasoɔ no sɛdeɛ ahwereɛ wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmienu so bɛgye kyɛfa 2 ankasa, wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmiɛnsa so no ɛda so ma yɛn +2 (yɛwɔ +4 wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmienu akyi na yɛde 2 to asiane mu), na wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so ɛnan so no ɛma yɛn baabi a yɛnnya na yɛnhwere (yɛwɔ +6 na yɛde 6 to asiane mu). Deɛ ɛtwetwe nnipa ne sɛ ahwereɛ wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmiɛnsa ne ɛnan so no gye yɛn ankasa yɛn sika kakra pɛ.

Kyinhyia 1–30

Mmɔden dunwɔtwe. Du hweree wɔ anammɔn a edi kan so (−$10 biara), enum wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmienu so (−$20 biara), mmienu wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmiɛnsa so (+$20 biara), baako wiee pɛyɛ wɔ kyinhyia 27–30 mu (kɔkɔɔ, kɔkɔɔ, kɔkɔɔ, kɔkɔɔ, +$120). Kyinhyia 30 akyi no, ɛyɛ −$40, na wɔ kyinhyia 26 so na ɛyɛ −$160. Ntoatoasoɔ a ɛwiee pɛyɛ no yɛɛ sɛ nhyehyɛe no reyɛ adwuma; nanso na ɛyɛ 5.6% no a ɛreba sɛdeɛ wɔhwɛ kwan.

mmɔdenntoatoasoɔbɛt sikawo ankasa wo sika a ɛwɔ asiane mumfasoɔ ankasa

1H10$10−$10

2N H10, 30$20−$20

3N N H10, 30, 20$0+$20

4–17mpɛn pii H wɔ anammɔn 1 so≤ 30≤ $20−$150

18N N N N10, 30, 20, 60$0+$120

30 akyimmɔden 18, 1 wiee−$40

Kyinhyia 31–60

Mmɔden dunum: baako wiee pɛyɛ wɔ kyinhyia 44–47 mu ma +$120, na mmienu duruu anammɔn a ɛtɔ so ɛnan so na ɛhweree wɔ hɔ (biara $0 mfasoɔ ankasa: wodii nkonim +$60, na afei wode $60 too bɛt na ɛhweree). Saa kyinhyia yi mu no ɛyɛ −$10; awieeɛ no −$50; deɛ ɛkɔɔ soro sen biara yɛ +$80 wɔ kyinhyia 47 so. Ntoatoasoɔ mmienu na ɛwiee pɛyɛ wɔ mmɔden 33 mu, na wɔhwɛɛ kwan sɛ ɛbɛyɛ 1.8: nhwɛsoɔ a ɛyɛ pɛ.

Bɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ a ɛkɔ soro: agorɔ bere yi ne dubaako a ɛte sɛ ɛnodeɛ ɛfiri mu ba ne mfitiaseɛ

agorɔ bere 1,000 × kyinhyia 500 · afasebiri p10/p25/p75/p90, bruu a ɛnyɛ den mfinimfini nɔma, nhwɛsoɔ 82 a ɛnyɛ den · fa mouse fa mfonini no so na hunu nkyɛmu wɔ kyinhyia bi so

p10 −$800
p25 −$520
mfinimfini nɔma −$240
p75 +$70
p90 +$350

agorɔ bere 1,000 × kyinhyia 500 · y-axis no atwa wɔ ɔha nkyɛmu 1–99 (ano koraa −$1,000 kɔsi +$1,200) · kyinhyia 500 · bɛt a wofi ase $10 · sika pɛ

Ahwereɛ nketewa a ɛkɔ so daa, na ɛtɔ da a ɛhuri kɔ soro. 1-3-2-6 ne Paroli nyinaa wɔ saa nsɛsoɔ yi; ntoatoasoɔ no sesa sika no kɛseɛ nko ara.

Akontaa no

Bɛt sika nyinaa bɛyɛ $1,200, na sika pɛ a wɔto daa deɛ yɛ $600. Ahwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanakontaabuAhwereɛ a wɔhwɛ kwanBoɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan bɔ bɛt sika nyinaa ho; ahwereɛ mfinimfini boɔ wɔ agorɔ bere anaa bere bi mu.Kenkan ne nyinaa → yɛ $32; deɛ ɛbaa ankasa yɛ −$50, na ɛwɔ gyinapɛn nsakraeɛakontaabuGyinapɛn nsakraeɛNsakraeɛ ntini; ntam kwan a ɛtaa da deɛ ɛfiri mu ba ne boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan ntam.Kenkan ne nyinaa → baako mu. Ntoatoasoɔ no nhyehyɛe nti, mmɔden a ɛware mu no, sika no dodoɔ a ɛda ɛpono no so yɛ sika a yɛdii nkonim kyinhyia mmienu a atwam no, na ɛno ne nnaadaa a ɛma ɛyɛ dɛ. Ɛyɛ yɛn ankasa yɛn sika firi bere a dila no tua no.

Agorɔ sika a wɔtuaa kyinhyia mmienu a atwam no ayɛ agorɔfoɔ no ankasa ne sika dada.

Deɛ agorɔ bere no kyerɛ

1-3-2-6 yɛ ParoliɔkwanParoliBɛt nsakraeɛ ntoatoasoɔ a ɛkɔ soro nkonim akyi: bɔ no mmɔho mmienu nkonim akyi, san fi ase ahwereɛ akyi anaa nkonim mmiɛnsa a ɛtoa so akyi. Wɔfrɛ no nso Martingale a ɛdane.Kenkan ne nyinaa → a wɔasesa bɛt sika no kɛseɛ sɛdeɛ anammɔn a ɛba akyire no bɛyɛ sɛ ɛyɛ kwa. Ɛwie pɛyɛ hokwanakontaabuHokwanHokwan a biribi bɛba, firi 0 kɔsi 1 anaa 0% kɔsi 100%. Nɔma baako: 1/37 = 2.70%.Kenkan ne nyinaa → (18/37)⁴ = 5.6% ne ɛwie pɛyɛ akatuasikaAkatuaDeɛ bɛt a edi nkonim de ma, a wɔka no sɛ “X tia 1” ka bɛt sika a ɛsan ba no ho.Kenkan ne nyinaa → kyɛfa 12 no, akontaabu na ɛhyɛ. Bɛt to kwan no kyerɛ sɛdeɛ 2.70% a ɛbɛba ara no bɛkyɛ ahwereɛ nketewa pii ne nkonim akɛseɛ kakra ntam nko ara. Ma agorɔfoɔ a n'ani gye ntoatoasoɔ a ɔbɛdi akyi ho no, enni ɔhaw biara. Ɛnyɛ ɔkwan a ɛma mfasoɔ.

Nsɛmmisa

Adɛn nti na ɛyɛ 1-3-2-6 na ɛnyɛ 1-2-4-8?

1-2-4-8 yɛ Paroli kɔsi nkonim ɛnan; ɛde sika no nyinaa to asiane mu wɔ anammɔn biara so. 1-3-2-6 no de kyɛfa 2 sie wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmienu akyi, enti ahwereɛ wɔ anammɔn a ɛtɔ so mmiɛnsa so no nnye wo ankasa wo sika biara. Boɔ a wɔhwɛ kwan no yɛ pɛ.

Agorɔ bere mua taa yɛ dɛn?

Ɛtaa kɔ fam kakra, na ɛhuri kɔ soro mprɛ baako anaa mmienu. Wɔ saa kyɛfa yi so no, agorɔ bere mmienu biara wɔ enum mu na ɛwie mfasoɔ mu kyinhyia 60 akyi.

Metumi akɔ so sɛ ntoatoasoɔ no wie a?

Agorɔfoɔ bi kɔ so 1-3-2-6-12. Anammɔn a ɛdi so no di nkonim 2.7% wɔ mprɛ no mu (kɔkɔɔ enum a ɛtoatoa so), na nsɛsoɔ no yɛ pɛ.

Serew kakra

Nkonim ɛnan a ɛtoatoa so: 5.6%. Ntoatoasoɔ no kyerɛ sɛdeɛ ɛte nko ara.

Nsɛm fibea

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Ti 13, roulette.

wɔsan hwɛɛ mu 2026-09-28nhwɛsoɔ: Yuropu, hwee baakoakontaabu ɔkwan ↗nsɛm fibea ↗